The Black Swan Review Essay Example

The Black Swan Review Paper Essay on The Black Swan Socrates I only know that I know nothing is well suited to describe the main ideas of the book by Nassim Nicholas Talebs Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability. For many years, Taleb explores the problem of black swans ie, absolutely unpredictable events, of them same and colorfully depicts in the book The book is divided into 4 parts:. 1. Antibiblioteka Umberto Eco, or about finding evidence Taleb tells his life story, introduces the concept of Black Swan, tells the story of the worlds Srednestana in which we are taught to live and the world Kraynestana in which we actually inhabit 2. We can not foresee the name speaks for itself, especially criticism of long-term economic (and other) forecasts 3.. Gray swans Kraynestana criticism of the Gaussian distribution and the mathematical apparatus Taleb We will write a custom essay sample on The Black Swan Review specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on The Black Swan Review specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on The Black Swan Review specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer 4.. Final The basic idea Taleb is that the world is full of black swans unpredictable events, which at one point tremendously change our world or the lives of people who have experienced them. Especially indicative financial statistics on the exchange trading in the past 50 years, where the bulk of revenue has been received within 10 days all in different years. Taleb, as a trader, mostly, of course, adheres to economic borders. In the book, Taleb open and a lot of criticism of experts, teaches the reader to not rely entirely on the expert opinion. Somewhere leads this quite strong evidence, somewhere in there. In general, the book is entertaining, is positively charged and a moderate attitude of healthy skepticism, which gives an interesting point of view on the theory of probability. Can be interesting to a wider audience. However, in spite of the interesting topic and the excitement with which the narrator draws the reader into their theories, have books and quite significant drawbacks. The first, basic, and quite unforgivable Taleb, is that the author is quite a long time at the beginning of the book, for a few dozen pages, says, they say Now, now, the main thing the experience, and a little further, I will explain to you all with specific examples. Even the phrase gives amazing that I liked wildly: Ideas come and go, stories remain. Thats how. Handsomely. Exactly. And in the end? Shish you with gulkin nose stories. The lions share of all reinforcing the idea of ​​Talebs stories is the authors thought experiments The second drawback -. Excessive volume. Author revolves around the same themes and ideas, by repeating them from chapter to chapter. As a result, the readers attention is scattered, not concentrated, it becomes boring, automatically blokiruesh repetitions. Conciseness would give the material greater value The third -. Despite the fact that the author argues that it is necessary to look at the world more widely, he adheres only their theories, at times, seems to confuse cause and effect. Too clearly divided into black and white. The example of a swimmers body. First Taleb says that initially believed that the swimmers body is formed by training. But then I realized because man has become swimmer is due to the fact that he has such a body, ie, genetically predisposed! Mol dwarf will not go to the swimmers, and if you go it grows up at the expense of training. But, for some reason, is not considered the relationship model that a) a person becomes a swimmer due to genetic predispositions; b) the final swimmers body (here, though you can argue about the meaning of the word in the sense of Figure) formed because of the training .